The Extent of Measurement Error in Longitudinal Earnings Data: Do Two Wrongs Make a Right?
比较了当前人口调查数据与行政社保工资税记录，发现纵向收入数据中的测量误差具有序列相关性和均值回归特性，但整体可靠性可能高于以往认知。
This article examines the properties and prevalence of measurement error in longitudinal earnings data. The analysis compares matched Current Population Survey data to administrative Social Security payroll tax records. In contrast to typically assumed properties of measurement error, the results indicate that errors are serially correlated over two years and negatively correlated with true earnings (i.e., mean reverting). In a cross section, the ratio of the variance of the signal to the total variance is 0.82 for men and 0.92 for women. These ratios fall to 0.65 and 0.81 when the data are specified in first differences. Longitudinal earnings data may be more reliable than previously believed. Copyright 1991 by University of Chicago Press.