The U.S. Budget Deficit and the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar
构建并估计了一个包含预期未来美国联邦预算赤字的实际汇率决定模型，应用于1974年6月至1987年10月美元对马克、日元和英镑的实际价值，发现预期赤字上升导致美元升值，预期赤字下降则导致美元贬值。
This paper presents and estimates a simple model of real exchange rate determination that includes the expected future U.S. federal budget deficit as a determinant. The model is applied to the real value of the dollar versus the mark, yen, and pound over the period June 1974-October 1987. The estimates suggest that rapid increases in the expected future deficit in the early 1980s contributed to a rapid appreciation of the dollar. The fall in the value of the dollar in the spring of 1985 appears to be due to a fall in the expected budget deficit. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.