Preliminary Data Errors and Their Impact on the Forecast Error of Simultaneous-Equations Models
识别并评估了初步数据误差对线性动态联立方程模型预测误差及预测误差方差的贡献，并以意大利小型宏观经济模型为例进行分解分析。
Econometric models, especially when designed for forecasting purposes, tend to use updated economic series, the last figures(s) of which embed first-published or preliminary data errors. This article identifies and assesses the contribution of errors in preliminary data to the forecast error and to the forecast error variance of linear dynamic simultaneous equation models. The effect of preliminary data errors is shown to be pervasive, although not necessarily weighty. The suggested decomposition of the forecast error is applied to a small macroeconometric model of the Italian economy.