Economic Dynamics and Government Stability in Postwar Italy
估计了意大利政府的存续时间模型，发现通胀率和罢工损失工时越高，政府倒台概率越大，这对政治经济周期理论有重要影响。
In this paper I estimate a duration model of the Italian government. The main finding of the paper is that the downfall probability of an Italian government depends on both political and economic factors. In particular, the higher the inflation rate and the higher the number of workhours lost in strikes both at the time a government forms and during its tenure in office, the more likely it is for a government to collapse. This result has important consequences for the validity of political theories of the business cycle. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog