A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence
回顾了20世纪90年代中期美国劳动生产率加速增长中信息技术的作用，指出其重要性在90年代末投资热潮后才被认识，并预测未来十年私营部门生产率年均增长约2.4%。
It is widely recognized that information technology was critical to the dramatic acceleration of U.S. labor productivity growth in the mid 1990s. This paper traces the evolution of productivity estimates to document how and when this perception emerged. Early studies concluded that information technology was relatively unimportant. Only after the massive information technology investment boom of the late 1990s did this investment and underlying productivity increases in the information technology–producing sectors come to be identified as important sources of growth. Although information technology has diminished in significance since the dot-com crash of 2000 and observed growth rates have slowed recently, we project that private sector productivity growth will average around 2.4 percent per year for the next decade, only moderately below the average of the post-1995 period.