Spillover Effects of Welfare Reforms in State Labor Markets
估计了福利改革对州就业率和工资率的影响，发现福利改革参与者的就业会对非参与者产生显著的替代效应，且替代效应的大小取决于州失业率的高低。
This paper estimates the effects of welfare reforms on a state’s employment and wage rates. Welfare reforms include: pushing welfare recipients into the labor force, financial incentives to recipients for working, wage subsidies to employers of recipients, and community service jobs for recipients. The effects of these policies are analyzed using a newly estimated model of state labor markets. Simulations show that jobs found by welfare reform participants cause sizable displacement effects for nonparticipants. Displacement effects of labor supply policies are highest when a state’s unemployment is high, whereas displacement effects of labor demand policies are highest when a state’s unemployment is low.