Getting at Systemic Risk via an Agent-Based Model of the Housing Market
构建了一个基于华盛顿特区个体数据的住房市场基于主体模型，初步分析表明1997-2007年住房繁荣与萧条主要源于杠杆变化而非利率，对研究系统性风险的经济学家有参考价值。
Systemic risk must include the housing market, though economists have not generally focused on it. We begin construction of an agent-based model of the housing market with individual data from Washington, DC. Twenty years of success with agent-based models of mortgage prepayments give us hope that such a model could be useful. Preliminary analysis suggests that the housing boom and bust of 1997-2007 was due in large part to changes in leverage rather than interest rates.