The Long‐Term Effects of Early Track Choice
利用出生日期造成的准随机分轨，研究德国初中进入更高级别轨道对长期教育和劳动力市场结果的影响，发现对边缘学生无显著正面效应，归因于后期轨道调整的可能性。
We investigate the effects of attending a more advanced track in middle school on long‐term education and labour market outcomes for Germany, a country with a rigorous early‐age tracking system, where the risk of misallocating students is particularly high. Our research design exploits quasi‐random shifts between tracks induced by date of birth, and speaks to the long‐term effects of early track attendance for a group of marginal students most at risk of misallocation. Remarkably, we find no evidence that attending a more advanced track leads to more favourable long‐term outcomes. We attribute this result to the possibility of later track‐reversal.