The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth
研究发现,美国国内总收入(GDI)比国内生产总值(GDP)更能反映过去25年商业周期中的真实产出波动,且2007-09年衰退在GDI中比GDP更严重。
The two official measures of U.S. economic output, gross domestic product (GDP) and gross domestic income (GDI), have shown markedly different business cycle fluctuations over the past 25 years, with GDI showing a more pronounced cycle than GDP. This paper reports a broad range of results that indicate that GDI better reflects the business cycle fluctuations in true output growth. Results on revisions to the estimates, and correlations with numerous other cyclically sensitive variables, are particularly favorable to GDI. The most recent GDI data show the 2007-09 downturn to have been considerably worse than is reflected in GDP.