Money Demand and Exchange Rate Determination under Hyperinflation: Conceptual Issues and Evidence from Yugoslavia
提出并检验了一个修正的货币模型,认为在南斯拉夫1992-94年恶性通胀中,汇率直接在货币市场决定,私人因美元化以外币计价实际货币持有。实证支持该模型,且货币需求函数呈非线性。
A modified monetary model of exchange rate determination is advanced and tested for the Yugoslav hyperinflation of 1992-94, stating that the exchange rate is determined directly in the money market thus implying that private agents, due to dollarization, denominate their real money holdings in foreign currency. Empirical evidence supports the advanced model. Apart from the last seven months of the Yugoslav hyperinflation, the exact RE present value model of the exchange rate is accepted, while that of the price level is rejected. For the whole period of hyperinflation the modified money demand schedule, with money holdings denominated in foreign currency, is nonlinear with decreasing semielasticity of money demand.