Multiple Regimes in U.S. Output Fluctuations
使用回归树分析技术，研究1923-1991年美国经济是否存在多重体制，发现产出存在非线性行为的强证据，并通过蒙特卡洛方法评估体制变化的显著性。
This article investigates the existence of multiple regimes in the U.S. economy during the 1923—1991 period. A technique known as regression tree analysis is applied to search for splits in the data, if any exist, rather than choosing a splitting point a priori as has been done in previous work. Using this technique, strong evidence for the existence of nonlinear behavior of U.S. output is found over this period. Monte Carlo results are presented to assess the significance of the regime changes that are found.