The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle
研究季节性波动本身，发现季节变动是宏观数量变量变化的重要来源，但在价格变量中很小或不存在；同时证明季节频率与商业周期频率下，产出、销售、生产率等呈现相似特征。
Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally-adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by examining the seasonal movements themselves. The authors' results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables, but are small or absent in price variables. The paper also demonstrates that at seasonal frequencies, as well as at business cycle frequencies, output movements across broadly-defined sectors move together, the timing of production and the timing of sales coincide closely, labor productivity is procyclical, nominal money and real output are highly correlated, and prices vary less than quantities. Copyright 1989 by University of Chicago Press.