Drilling Deeper: A Systematic, Context-Sensitive Investigation of Causal Mechanisms in the Oil–Conflict Link
结合系统方法与国别细节，检验石油与冲突的因果机制。通过对四个主要石油出口国的比较，发现石油通过不满情绪促成反对派形成，但暴力程度主要取决于非石油条件，如反对派凝聚力和政府反应。
This article employs an innovative methodology to study causal mechanisms in the oil–conflict link by combining a systematic approach with taking into account country details. Engaging in a deductive test of causal mechanisms in a controlled comparison of four major oil exporters, results show that no oil-related causal mechanism can fully explain the differences in violence. A more inductive analysis complemented by process tracing suggests a more comprehensive mechanism: oil contributes to the formation of opposition through grievances. Levels of violence, however, vary largely according to non-oil conditions – particularly the cohesiveness of opposition and the reaction of government to challengers.