Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System
利用两个纵向数据集，实证检验了个体对被捕概率的信念更新及其犯罪威慑效应，发现信念与实际逮捕率正相关，但不受随机他人或社区信息影响，而受个人犯罪与逮捕历史影响，且信念显著威慑犯罪。
This paper empirically examines belief updating of the perceived probability of arrest and its criminal deterrence effects using two longitudinal data sources. While beliefs about the probability of arrest are positively correlated with local official arrest rates, they are unresponsive to information acquired from random individuals and local neighborhood conditions. Importantly, perceptions respond to changes in an individual's criminal and arrest history. Young males who engage in crime without getting arrested revise their perceived probability of arrest downward, while those who are arrested revise their probability upward. Estimates suggest that beliefs about the probability of arrest significantly deter crime.