Estimating the Demand for a New Technology: Bt Cotton and Insecticide Policies
结合Bt棉花采用的实际数据和意愿调查数据，估计东南部地区对Bt棉花的需求，并模拟通过补贴减少常规杀虫剂使用的成本。
Abstract This article examines the potential demand for Bt cotton in the Southeast from information gathered in the first year of commercialization. We combine revealed preference (RP) data on adoption of Bt cotton varieties with stated preference (SP) data on willingness to adopt to estimate demand using a double‐bounded maximum likelihood procedure. Using estimated demand equations, we simulate the costs of reducing conventional insecticide applications through subsidization of Bt cotton. Results indicate that reducing cotton insecticide applications by 40% in the Southeast would require a $@@‐@@21/acre subsidy, with total annual program costs between $@@‐@@53 million and $@@‐@@60 million.