The Reliability of Historical Macroeconomic Data for Comparing Cyclical Stability
研究了1930年前GNP和失业率估计是否夸大了周期波动，导致对20世纪经济稳定性增加的错误印象。结论是可能的夸大范围相对于观察到的变化很小。
The question at issue is whether estimates of GNP and unemployment before 1930 exaggerate cyclical volatility enough to produce a false impression of increasing economic stability over the twentieth century. Based on research to be reported in detail at a later date, the answer is no. The range of possible exaggerations is small relative to the observed change.