CHALLENGER: FINE‐TUNING THE ODDS UNTIL SOMETHING BREAKS
通过挑战者号灾难案例，说明反复成功和逐渐适应如何改变决策者对成功概率的信念，以及工程师和管理者追求不同目标导致的微调过程如何降低成功概率直至严重失败发生。
ABSTRACT The Challenger disaster illustrates the effects of repeated successes, gradual acclimatization, and the differing responsibilities of engineers and managers. Past successes and acclimatization alter decision‐makers’ beliefs about probabilities of future success. Fine‐tuning processes result from engineers’ and managers’ pursuing partially inconsistent goals while trying to learn from their experiences. Fine‐tuning reduces probabilities of success, and it continues until a serious failure occurs.