政治竞选与大数据

Political Campaigns and Big Data

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2014
被引 257
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

现代竞选利用公民行为数据建立预测模型,指导选举策略和战术,但联盟组织间存在协调困境,法律和政治限制阻碍了选民分区以避免重复努力。

Abstract

Modern campaigns develop databases of detailed information about citizens to inform electoral strategy and to guide tactical efforts. Despite sensational reports about the value of individual consumer data, the most valuable information campaigns acquire comes from the behaviors and direct responses provided by citizens themselves. Campaign data analysts develop models using this information to produce individual-level predictions about citizens' likelihoods of performing certain political behaviors, of supporting candidates and issues, and of changing their support conditional on being targeted with specific campaign interventions. The use of these predictive scores has increased dramatically since 2004, and their use could yield sizable gains to campaigns that harness them. At the same time, their widespread use effectively creates a coordination game with incomplete information between allied organizations. As such, organizations would benefit from partitioning the electorate to not duplicate efforts, but legal and political constraints preclude that possibility.

政治竞选大数据选民数据库预测模型协调博弈