Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule
提出一种利用宏观经济新闻估计货币政策规则的新方法，直接估计市场参与者用于形成预期的政策规则。1994至2007年的证据表明，市场感知的美联储政策规则发生了变化：产出响应消失，通胀响应路径更平缓但长期幅度更大。
We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. We estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form their expectations by linking news' effects on forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy. Evidence between 1994 and 2007 indicates that the market-perceived Federal Reserve policy rule changed: the output response vanished, and the inflation response path became more gradual but larger in long-run magnitude. These response coefficient estimates are robust to measurement and theoretical issues with both potential output and the inflation target.