Using Consumer Theory to Test Competing Business Cycles Models
利用消费者理论，通过美国57种消费品数据证实奢侈品和耐用品支出更具周期性，并以此检验了周期性利用和规模报酬递增两种商业周期模型的预测，发现价格数据支持周期性利用模型。
Consumer theory suggests that expenditures on luxuries and durables should be more cyclical than expenditures on necessities and nondurables. Estimating luxuriouseness and durability for 57 consumer goods, we confirm this prediction in U.S. data. We exploit this finding to test predictions of cyclical utilization and increasing returns models of business cycles. Both models predict more cyclical productivity for durable luxuries, a prediction borne out in the data. The utilization model predicts procyclical relative prices for durables and luxuries; the increasing returns model does not. Prices are more procyclical for durables and luxuries, discriminating in favor of cyclical utilization.