发展中国家是否需要“良好”的制度、政策和深度金融市场才能从资本账户开放中受益?

Do developing countries need 'good' institutions and policies and deep financial markets to benefit from capital account liberalization?

Journal of Economic Geography · 2009
被引 8
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

批判性地评估了发展中国家若拥有更好制度、政策和金融市场就能从资本账户开放中获益的观点,通过分析1984-2004年富裕、制度先进经济体的数据,发现净资本流入与未来经济增长无强相关,反而与过去增长更相关,表明资本账户开放不太可能促进增长。

Abstract

This article critically evaluates the argument that, if developing countries had better
\ninstitutions and policies and deeper financial markets, they would receive a boost to
\ngrowth from capital account liberalization. The existing empirical record is ambiguous
\nand leaves unanswered many of the important questions facing policy-makers. To test
\nsome predictions driving the case for capital account liberalization in developing
\ncountries, this article investigates the relationship between net capital inflows and
\nmedium-term economic growth within a sample of rich, institutionally advanced
\neconomies between 1984 and 2004. No evidence of a strong or statistically robust
\nrelationship between net capital inflows and future economic growth is found. On the
\ncontrary, the evidence suggests that net capital inflows are more strongly associated
\nwith past economic growth than with future economic growth. This result implies that
\ncapital account liberalization is not likely to boost growth, even among countries with
\nthe most appropriate institutions and policies.

资本账户开放制度质量资本流入经济增长