The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones
用统一框架分析汇率目标区理论，涵盖早期模型及最新发展，指出汇率预期稳定与否取决于央行区内政策和承诺可信度，并讨论目标区优劣及未来研究方向。
The theory of exchange rate target zones focuses on the role of exchange rate expectations in determining exchange rate behaviour and interest rate differentials in currency bands. This paper analyses earlier models of the target zone research programme as well as more recent developments including endogenous realignment expectations, price rigidities and alternative monetary feedback rules by means of a unified approach. Target zones may be the cause of stabilizing or destabilizing exchange rate expectations, the determinants of which crucially depend on the within‐band central bank policy as well as the credibility of the central banks’ commitment to defend the target zone. The paper closes with a discussion of the relative merits of implementing a target zone and some suggestions for further research.