In search of a smoking gun: macroeconomic policies and the crisis
考察了当前危机的宏观经济因素，包括全球趋势、货币政策、储备积累和美元地位，发现单一因素无法解释危机，但政策教训在于经济再平衡和关注宏观金融稳定。
This paper looks at macroeconomic factors behind the current crisis. The first part looks at how global macroeconomic trends—including sustained strong growth, low real interest rates, and high saving rates—provided an environment conducive to increased financial risk-taking. The second part examines macroeconomic policies and the international monetary system, assessing whether too easy monetary policy contributed to asset price bubbles, whether excessive reserve accumulation contributed to a glut of global savings, whether the US dollar's reserve currency status aggravated financial excesses, and whether policies in capital-importing countries were sufficiently countercyclical. We do not find a single factor that can explain the crisis and account for differences in countries’ experiences leading up to it; instead, the contribution of macroeconomic policy choices seems complex and ambiguous. However, there are still important policy lessons for, in particular, rebalancing economies away from export-dominated growth and having monetary policy place greater weight on macrofinancial stability.