The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence
利用涵盖17至21世纪的25种商品价格数据，采用新的时间序列方法检验初级商品相对价格是否存在长期下降趋势，发现11种商品价格在全部或部分时期呈现显著下降。
We employ a unique data set and new time-series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices. The data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective, spanning the seventeenth to the twenty-first centuries. New tests for the trend function, robust to the order of integration of the series, are applied to the data. Results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period. In the very long run, a secular, deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.