Debt and the developing countries: A simple model of optimal borrowing
提出了一个发展中国家最优借贷的简单宏观经济模型，发现最优债务水平对利率、资本生产率和外资投入比例特别敏感，并通过模拟验证了关键参数的影响。
Abstract This article proposes a simple macroeconomic model of optimal borrowing for LDCs. Using a two‐period framework it is shown that optimal debt levels are functions of interest rates on debt, shadow exchange rates, the shares of investment in domestic output and foreign inflows, the multiplier effects of investment and borrowing on output growth, and inter‐temporal consumption preferences. Empirical evidence is considered on the main observable variables and provides a basis for simulation exercises. For appropriate parameter values, optimal borrowing is found to be particularly sensitive to the interest rate, capital productivity, and the extent of foreign inflows invested. Notes Department of Economics, Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University. I am grateful to Ivy Papps, Dick Morley, Rodney Wilson and an anonymous referee of this Journal for comments on an earlier draft of this article.