Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?
通过新闻和政府公告构建叙事，识别政策和金融冲击，比较GDP预测与实际复苏，发现欧洲冲击和美国政治僵局导致复苏慢于预期。
This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. We construct a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. We then compare forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.