An Astructural Analysis of National Forest Policy and Employment
用非平稳马尔可夫链分析国家森林政策对林业就业的影响，发现宏观经济因素显著影响就业，而国家森林政策（以木材销售或采伐量衡量）则无显著影响。
Abstract Linkages between sector‐specific policy and sector employment are explored using a nonstationary Markov chain analysis. When parameterization of transition probabilities between employment sectors includes policy variables, hypothesis tests can determine policy impact relative to other variables. This astructural approach eliminates bias inherent in structural models. Application of this technique to Oregon's forestry sector and national forest policy demonstrates that macroeconomic forces have statistically important effects on employment while national forest policy, measured as timber sold or timber cut, does not. This result raises questions about forest policy impact analysis and assumptions inherent in national forest policy implementation.