Dealing with the Duhem–Quine thesis in financial economics: can causal holism help?
探讨金融经济学家在检验有效市场假说时如何应对杜恒-奎因论题带来的联合检验问题，并评估因果整体论能否解决证据歧义，结论是因果整体论无法帮助金融经济学家处理该论题对实证检验的影响。
Acceptance of the Duhem--Quine thesis implies a recognition that empirical tests of individual hypotheses are in fact tests of individual hypotheses in conjunction with the networks from which those hypotheses are derived. This leads to a problem in the evaluation of disconfirming evidence: is it the individual hypothesis or the network that is refuted? This paper examines how financial economists deal with this 'joint-testing' problem in their empirical evaluation of the efficient markets hypothesis. Causal holists argue that the holistic testing they espouse circumvents the difficulties surrounding joint-testing problems. This paper assesses whether a causal holist approach can resolve the ambiguity surrounding the evidence against the efficient markets hypothesis. It concludes that, without a resolution of the ontological--epistemological tension in causal holism identified by Fleetwood (Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2002, vol. 26, 27--45) and a clearer outline of the nature of holistic testing, causal holism cannot help financial economists deal with the implications of the Duhem--Quine thesis for empirical testing. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.