An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-lndicator Approach
构建双变量时间序列模型，分析工业生产与先行指标指数各成分的关系，揭示其平均领先时间、分布滞后形式及对经济活动的预测能力，并检验该指数对1980和1981年衰退的预测改进效果。
Bivariate time series models are built that describe the empirical relationships between industrial production and components of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI). This reveals the indicators' average lead times at all points of the business cycle, the forms of the distributed lags involved, and their ability to explain later movements in economic activity. The relationship between industrial production and the CLI is also examined and used to test the contribution of the CLI toward improving time series model forecasts of the 1980 and 1981 recessions.