The Dynamic Relationship Between the Dollar and Components of U.S. Trade
分解美国名义贸易差额为进出口价格和数量四个部分，用时序检验和格兰杰因果检验分析各组成部分对美元变动的响应，发现进口价格和数量的响应出奇微弱且滞后，提出贸易平衡演变的新观点。
The dynamic response of the nominal trade account to changes in the value of the U.S. dollar has been posited to follow a J-curve pattern. Recent experience calls this into question. The aggregate nominal trade balance is decomposed here into four components, both prices and volumes of imports and exports. Time series specification tests and Granger tests of causal priority are employed to identify the existence and nature of the response of each individual component to dollar movements. Surprisingly weak and delayed responses of both import prices and volumes are found, suggesting a new view of trade-balance evolution.