Intermediate Imports, the Terms of Trade, and the Dynamics of the Exchange Rate and Current Account
研究进口中间品价格上涨对小型开放经济的宏观影响，发现该冲击可能导致汇率短期和长期升值，并引发经常账户盈余，最终改善制成品贸易条件。
This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an increase in the price of an imported intermediate production input. The framework of the analysis is a small open economy with abating exchange rate and endogenous terms if trade, in which saving depends on residents'(variable) rate of time preference. Contrary to popular conceptions, an intermediate price shock may lead to an appreciation of the exchange rate in both the short run and the long run, and is likely to occasion a current-account surplus. The terms of trade between foreign and domestic finished goods always improve in the long run.