The J‐Curve Effect and the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance
检验J曲线理论，发现美元贬值后美国农业贸易平衡会先恶化约九个月，为研究汇率对农业贸易的影响提供了实证证据。
Abstract According to the J‐curve theory, following a currency depreciation, there will be an initial deterioration of the trade balance before an improvement is realized. This paper finds empirical evidence indicating the first segment of the J‐curve does exist for the U.S. agricultural trade balance. A 10% depreciation of the U.S. dollar is estimated to lead a deterioration of the agricultural trade balance that will last for about nine months.