Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime
构建了一个理性预期通胀模型，政府支出受体制变迁影响，代理人通过通胀、利率和支出数据推断体制概率，从而量化可信度。
This paper develops a rational expectations model of inflation in which the dynamics are driven by government expenditure and the effect of past inflation rates on the value of real taxes. Government spending follows an autoregressive process subject to discrete regime changes. The regimes are defined by whether the expenditure level is consistent with the rate of inflation targeted by the government. The agents do not observe the regime but construct probability inferences using data on inflation, interest rates, and spending. Credibility is quantified by the agents' inferred probability that the variables are in effect generated by the reformed regime. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.