Poverty Volatility and Macroeconomic Quiescence
研究美国自1980年代初以来贫困率对宏观经济反应减弱的现象，通过分析贫困率的波动性及其与宏观经济波动的关系，探讨不同时期和人口群体面临的贫困风险差异。
A consistent finding in the poverty literature is the diminution of the impact of the macroeconomy on official poverty rates in the United States since the early 1980s. Up until then, measures of aggregate economic activity (real GDP growth or the unemployment rate) had a more substantial influence on the poverty rate. Most recently, this fact has been documented by Hilary W. Hoynes, Marianne E. Page, and Ann Huff Stevens (2006, HPS hereafter). Kevin Lang (2007) notes that much has changed since the early 1980s with respect to antipoverty policy and labor market factors that affect poverty status. Important changes include the transition from cash to in-kind transfers, the stagnation in real median earnings, rising earnings inequality, and the increase in female-headed households. Nevertheless, after considering several factors that influence poverty, including wage growth, inequality, and female employment, HPS conclude their analysis of poverty trends with the view that explanation of the change in the response of poverty to macroeconomic indicators remains an open issue. This paper examines whether traction may be gained on this issue by enhancing our understanding of the volatility of poverty rates. Specifically, we examine the volatility of poverty rates over time and across demographic groups. To the extent that poverty rate variability is associated with the risk of poverty incidence, it is shown that certain eras have exposed members of particular demographic groups to more poverty risk than others. Then, we contrast the volatility of poverty rates to that of aggregate economic activity. Margaret M. McConnell and Gabriel Perez-Quiros (2000), among others, present evidence that the volatility of real GDP has been significantly Poverty Volatility and Macroeconomic Quiescence