A Note on Qualitative Forecast Evaluation
传统2×2列联表用于定性预测评估时可能因忽略转折方向而产生误导，本文提出4×4列联表以提供更全面的定性预测表现信息。
Abstract Traditionally, the 2 × 2 contingency table method has been used for qualitative evaluation of forecasts. However, the conclusions drawn based on this method could be misleading because it does not account for the direction of the turning or no turning points. A 4 × 4 contingency table which overcomes this weakness and which gives more information on the qualitative performance of the forecast is suggested.