A PORTFOLIO MODEL FOR EVALUATING RISK IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, WITH AN APPLICATION TO AGRICULTURE IN NIGER
开发了一个同时考虑风险和利润的规划与项目评估模型，应用于尼日尔农业，发现该模型与常见利润最大化模型在间作、牲畜养殖、技术推广等方面的评估结果存在显著差异。
After a literature review, a planning and project evaluation model is developed that includes both risk and profit considerations but avoids some weaknesses of other mean‐variance models. Agricultural extension and project evaluation results of an application of this model are compared to those of the common profit‐maximisation model. The two sets of results differ on the worth of intercropping, the relative merits of raising small ruminants and cattle, the likelihood of success of a major livestock development programme (which would benefit only wealthier farmers), the benefits of introducing labour‐saving technologies, and the value of teaching/demonstration components in the projects being evaluated.