Development of a Prediction Model for Hospital Closure Using Financial Accounting Data*
研究了21个财务比率与医院关闭的关系，发现其中17个在关闭前一年显著相关，并建立了多变量预测模型，帮助识别医院关闭的财务预警指标。
ABSTRACT Numerous research studies have examined the use of financial accounting data in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Partly due to a lack of available data, however, little work has been done in developing a closure prediction model specifically for hospitals. Using cost reports from the Health Care Financing Administration and a sample of 71 closed hospitals and a matched sample of 71 open hospitals, the current study examines the relationship between 21 financial accounting ratios and hospital closure. Univariate logit results indicate that hospital closure is significantly related to 17 of the 21 ratios one year prior to closure. Results are also presented using a multivariate model, and for the relationships two years prior to closure. The current study provides information helpful to users in identifying financial variables which may be important indicators of hospital closure.