库存模型中调整速度的进一步探讨

More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking · 1986
被引 3
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

发现,在估计制造商成品库存的调整模型时,平方残差和函数存在两个局部最小值,分别对应高调整速度和低调整速度,且两者拟合数据几乎一样好。这源于部分调整模型普遍存在的识别问题,而非特例。

Abstract

When empirical stock-adjustment models of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods are estimated, there appear to be two local minima in the sum of squared residuals functions. At one local minimum, the estimated adjustment speed is typically quite high; at the other, it is typically quite low. Furthermore, finding two sets of estimates that fit the data almost equally well does not appear to be a quirk of this particular application. Rather, it stems from a fundamental identification problem that afflicts partial adjustment models of all kinds. In the specific context of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, the estimation procedure employed by Maccini and Rossana seems to pick out the solution with rapid adjustment (and high serial correlation in the disturbances) whereas the solution with slow adjustment (and little serial correlation) is more often the global minimum.

库存调整速度局部最小值识别问题部分调整模型