Estimating Central Bank Preferences under Commitment and Discretion
用新凯恩斯模型估计美国央行在承诺和相机抉择两种政策下的损失函数权重，发现数据更支持相机抉择模型，且该模型下央行对利率平滑、通胀和产出稳定的关注更均衡。
This paper explains U.S. macroeconomic outcomes with an empirical New Keynesian model in which monetary policy minimizes the central bank’s loss function. The presence of expectations in the model forms a well‐known distinction between two modes of optimization, termed commitment and discretion. The model is estimated separately under each policy using maximum likelihood over the Volcker–Greenspan–Bernanke period. Comparisons of fit reveal that the data favor the specification with discretionary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights point to an excessive concern for interest rate smoothing in the commitment model but a more balanced concern relative to inflation and output stability in the discretionary model.