Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate
提出新框架估计可储存农产品的供给弹性，利用过去产量冲击作为外生价格变动因素，并评估2009年可再生燃料标准对玉米、大米、大豆和小麦价格、数量及消费者剩余的影响。
We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters. In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 Renewable Fuel Standard on commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus for the four basic staples: corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Prices increase 20 percent if one-third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock, with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 percent.