Credibility of Protection and Incentives to Innovate
论证临时性贸易保护能否促进创新，取决于保护政策是否被企业视为可信：若企业担心保护可能提前取消或到期延长，其研发投入反而低于自由贸易水平。
In recent trade policy debates it is often argued that temporary protection stimulates innovation. This paper shows that the validity of the argument depends on the perceived credibility of protection policy. If it is suspected that temporary protection will be removed early should innovation occur before its terminal date, the protected firm invests less in R&D than it does under free trade. If it is expected that protection will be extended should no innovation have occurred by its terminal date, investment falls below the free‐trade level, and eventually to zero, as the terminal date is approached.