A RESIDENTIAL ENERGY MARKET MODEL: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS*
构建了一个多部门住宅能源政策模型，用特拉华州季度数据检验，模拟了三种能源政策对消费、价格、住房许可和抵押贷款的影响。
ABSTRACT This paper develops a multisector residential energy policy model. This model hypothesizes that household energy behavior is affected by conditions in the housing, the mortgage finance, and the energy markets. The relationships encompassed by the model are specified with 32 single and simultaneous equations and tested with quarterly data drawn from behavior in Delaware. After the testing and evaluation of the model for its statistical performance, thereafter, three energy policies are simulated a 5 percent residential energy consumption tax, a set of conventional insulation requirements for all new housing, and a passive solar‐installation requirement for all new housing. These policy choices are evaluated in terms of their impact on energy consumption, prices, demand and size of different types of housing permits, and mortgage financing. Finally, the economic and social implications of these policy impacts are discussed.