The Demand for and Return to Education When Education Outcomes are Uncertain
把教育看作不确定下的序贯选择，用简单模型分析能力、高中准备、教育偏好、借款利率和大学事后回报对大学结果概率和预期回报的影响，并提出了考虑不确定性和非线性关系的实证方法。
This article treats education as a sequential choice that is made under uncertainty. A simple model is used to explore the effects of ability, high school preparation, preferences for schooling, the borrowing rate, and ex post payoffs to college on the probability of various postsecondary college outcomes and the ex ante return to starting college. The model motivates an empirical method of accounting for uncertainty about educational outcomes and for nonlinearity in the relationship between years of education and earnings when estimating the expected return to the first year of college. Copyright 1993 by University of Chicago Press.