Persistence of Employment Fluctuations: A Model of Recurring Job Loss
标准模型无法解释失业率的持续性与工人流动数据中高就业发现率之间的矛盾。本文通过一个匹配模型，强调新成立企业-工人匹配的高风险率，模拟显示反复失业可使失业率在初始冲击后持续高位4-5年。
Standard models of employment fluctuations cannot reconcile the unemployment rate's remarkable persistence with the high job-finding rates found in worker flows data. A matching model emphasizing high hazard rates among newly formed firm-worker matches can resolve this shortcoming. In the model, matches are experience goods; consequently, newly employed workers face higher hazard rates. Following a job loss, workers may experience several short-lived jobs before finding stable employment. At an aggregate level, an initial burst of job loss precipitates a steady flow of recurring job loss. A simulation shows that this recurring job loss can account for the fact that the unemployment rate remains elevated for as much as 4 or 5 years following an initial jump. Copyright 2004, Wiley-Blackwell.