A Numerical Investigation of the Potential for Negative Emissions Leakage
研究排放限制区域可能因资本和劳动力需求增加导致其他区域排放减少(负泄漏)的条件,发现化石燃料供给弹性需接近无穷大才可能产生负泄漏,而实证估计值小于1,因此负泄漏不太可能发生。
Emissions restrictions in one region may decrease emissions elsewhere (negative leakage), as increased demand for capital and labor to abate emissions in constrained regions may reduce output in unconstrained regions. We investigate leakage in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models under alternative fossil fuel supply elasticity values and factor mobility assumptions. We find that fossil fuel supply elasticities must be equal or close to infinity to generate net negative leakage. As empirical estimates for fossil fuel supply elasticities are less than 1, we conclude that leakage estimates from CGE models are unlikely to be negative.