Climate change uncertainty, irreversibility and the precautionary principle
批判了经济学家用期权价值论证预防原则的做法，指出其误解了不确定性和不可逆性，并在凯恩斯不确定性条件下重新论证了该原则，同时回顾了相关决策理论及其对气候政策决策的启示。
This paper begins with a critique of the option value argument used by economists to explain and justify the precautionary principle. The argument is shown to misrepresent both uncertainty and irreversibility. An alternative justification of the precautionary principle is discussed, under conditions of Keynesian uncertainty, and irreversibility interpreted in terms of incommensurability. Recent formal decision theories under Keynesian uncertainty are reviewed and their limitations explored, with particular reference to the insights that decision theory can bring to understanding the precautionary principle. Throughout, the decision problems under consideration are those faced by climate change policy makers. Copyright , Oxford University Press.