A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle
用非参数方法检验美国经济扩张和收缩的终止概率是否随持续时间增加而变化，发现整个周期和战前扩张期存在一定证据，但其他时期证据不足。
Does the termination probability of a business expansion or contraction increase with age? This question may be formally addressed by analyzing the nature of duration dependence in aggregate economic activity. The author's null hypothesis is that there is no duration dependence, which they test via intentionally nonparametric procedures. They also argue that a common notion of business cycle periodicity can be usefully interpreted in terms of whole-cycle duration dependence. The authors find some evidence for duration dependence in whole cycles and in prewar expansions, but little evidence elsewhere. Copyright 1990 by University of Chicago Press.