Improving Revenue Management Decision Making for Airlines by Evaluating Analyst‐Adjusted Passenger Demand Forecasts*
提出一种考虑未观测需求的方法来评估分析师调整后的预测性能，帮助航空公司减少预测误差、提升收益，初步数据验证了分析师调整的价值。
ABSTRACT To maximize revenue, airline revenue management analysts (RMAs) attempt to protect the right number of seats for late‐booking, high‐revenue‐generating passengers from low‐valued leisure passengers. Simulation results in the past showed that a major airline can generate approximately $500 million per year through efficient RM operations. Accurate passenger demand forecasts are required, because reduced forecast error significantly improves revenue. RMAs often adjust the system forecasts to improve revenue opportunity. Analysis of system forecast performance and analyst adjustment is complex, because one must account for all unseen demands throughout the life of a flight. This article proposes a method to account for unseen demand and evaluate forecast performance (adjusted or unadjusted) through a forecast monitoring system. Initial results from one major airline's origin‐destination market data justify the value of RMA forecasting adjustments.