Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study
通过实验模拟三种政策情景，研究反周期支付和基础面积更新预期如何激励农户增加基础作物种植，即使支付与当前生产脱钩，这种选择可能降低收入并损害市场效率。
Abstract We design an experiment to simulate how people make agricultural production decisions under three policy scenarios, each incorporating direct payments (DPs): ( a ) price uncertainty without countercyclical payments (CCPs); ( b ) price uncertainty with CCPs; and ( c ) price uncertainty, CCPs, and uncertainty regarding base acreage updating. Results are the CCP program and perceived possibility of future base updating created incentives for subjects to invest more in program (base) crops, despite payments being decoupled from current production decisions. Those choosing to reduce revenue risk by increasing plantings of base crops may face reduced incomes, suggesting the efficiency of crop markets may be diminished.