ESTIMATION OF THE VECTOR MOVING AVERAGE MODEL BY VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION
提出一种基于向量自回归近似的向量移动平均模型估计方法，该方法计算量小且对模型误设更稳健，并用加拿大批发和零售库存数据展示了冲击传播。
ABSTRACT We examine a simple estimator for the multivariate moving average model based on vector autoregressive approximation. In finite samples the estimator has a bias which is low where roots of the characteristic equation are well away from the unit circle, and more substantial where one or more roots have modulus near unity. We show that the representation estimated by this multivariate technique is consistent and asymptotically invertible. This estimator has significant computational advantages over Maximum Likelihood, and more importantly may be more robust than ML to mis-specification of the vector moving average model. The estimation method is applied to a VMA model of wholesale and retail inventories, using Canadian data on inventory investment, and allows us to examine the propagation of shocks between the two classes of inventory.